Simultaneous elections?
Jan. 14th, 2007 06:02 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
frandroidLa machine électorale du Bloc prête à appuyer le PQ [cyberpresse.ca]
That's kind of a joke. The Bloc's electoral machine IS the PQ's electoral machine. I'm sure there are some parts that don't overlap (especially the paid operatives), but the core of the militancy is pretty similar.
Looking at the opposition, I'm not quite sure how the federal Liberal and Conservative machines overlap with the provincial Liberals and Action Démocratique (neo-conservatives).
It's been said that out of the two levels, one of the elections will be in the spring, and the other during the fall. Harper and Charest would have to discuss it, because their fortunes are more interconnected than any other federal-provincial combination in ages (if you exclude the Liberal/Bloc in Québec, Bloc/Reform symbiotic/counterbalance relationships in the 90s, which were not managed relationships). Should Harper manage to pass his budget, which would include some candy for Québec, Charest would then call an election and supposedly ride to victory. Should Harper be defeated, Charest would have to wait until fall (when he is legally obliged to trigger the election)
But I'm lead to think, what would be the impact of a simultaneous provincial and federal election? Who has more to lose? Would it be possible to stretch the separatist forces in Québec while maintaining a stronger federalist front, both at the federal and provincial levels?
I think the immediate, clear loser would be the Action Démocratique (ADQ). Between this non-party (it still doesn't have provincial recognition, despite gathering nearly 20% of the vote last time) that can't affect anything, and supporting the federal Conservatives, which could ostensibly return to power with a majority, the choice is a no-brainer. A lack of militants for the Action Démocratique would be a boon to the provincial Liberals, with whom they are competing to occupy the right side of the political spectrum. That's one important part of the equation, which I hadn't even thought about when I started writing this message. (Would Harper be willing to torpedo the ADQ to maintain the Fed-Con/Prov-Lib mutual benefit relationship? I think he would.)
At the other end of the spectrum, I suspect that the NDP would lose a chunk of its militants to Québec Solidaire (QS), more poised to make gains than the NDP, if only because it is a new, unified party on the Left. The Bloc might win a bit in some ridings, the Liberals in some others, but the impact wouldn't be important either way. QS wouldn't win any provincial ridings either, but it might tip the election to a Liberal candidate in some selected Montréal ridings. (Do you follow me?)
Anyway, third parties dealt with, we are now left with the PQ/Liberal combo provincially, and the Bloc/Liberal/Conservative combo federally. As you can see, the federal scene is a little more congested, but that is really a false picture: the Conservatives won their seats in Québec City and the Beauce, and the Liberals are still the main federal contender in Montréal. If the Conservatives start splitting votes in Montréal, all this might come to naught, paving the way for the Bloc anyway. That might not be horrible bad for Harper though: he needs the Bloc to keep taking seats away from the Liberals in Québec if he wants to maintain a majority, or at least be the dominant minority ruler. Liberal militants might decide to put their weight behind the provincial Liberals, since a PQ victory can be more frightening than a Conservative victory (even for the soft-lefty ones).
Another factor to take into account is the political illiteracy of a part of the voting public. You've all met people who vote but can't make the difference between the provincial and federal parties. This kind of confusion would be a kind of Russian roulette in the Québec scene.
That's a lot of conjecture, I will concede. It would need to be backed up with a strong Harper budget, good for Québec with some Green words in there, but defeated in Parliament. But if Harper and Charest thought their could both win at this game, why not do it?
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compasspoints, you're my ear on the ground, whaddya think? ;]
That's kind of a joke. The Bloc's electoral machine IS the PQ's electoral machine. I'm sure there are some parts that don't overlap (especially the paid operatives), but the core of the militancy is pretty similar.
Looking at the opposition, I'm not quite sure how the federal Liberal and Conservative machines overlap with the provincial Liberals and Action Démocratique (neo-conservatives).
It's been said that out of the two levels, one of the elections will be in the spring, and the other during the fall. Harper and Charest would have to discuss it, because their fortunes are more interconnected than any other federal-provincial combination in ages (if you exclude the Liberal/Bloc in Québec, Bloc/Reform symbiotic/counterbalance relationships in the 90s, which were not managed relationships). Should Harper manage to pass his budget, which would include some candy for Québec, Charest would then call an election and supposedly ride to victory. Should Harper be defeated, Charest would have to wait until fall (when he is legally obliged to trigger the election)
But I'm lead to think, what would be the impact of a simultaneous provincial and federal election? Who has more to lose? Would it be possible to stretch the separatist forces in Québec while maintaining a stronger federalist front, both at the federal and provincial levels?
I think the immediate, clear loser would be the Action Démocratique (ADQ). Between this non-party (it still doesn't have provincial recognition, despite gathering nearly 20% of the vote last time) that can't affect anything, and supporting the federal Conservatives, which could ostensibly return to power with a majority, the choice is a no-brainer. A lack of militants for the Action Démocratique would be a boon to the provincial Liberals, with whom they are competing to occupy the right side of the political spectrum. That's one important part of the equation, which I hadn't even thought about when I started writing this message. (Would Harper be willing to torpedo the ADQ to maintain the Fed-Con/Prov-Lib mutual benefit relationship? I think he would.)
At the other end of the spectrum, I suspect that the NDP would lose a chunk of its militants to Québec Solidaire (QS), more poised to make gains than the NDP, if only because it is a new, unified party on the Left. The Bloc might win a bit in some ridings, the Liberals in some others, but the impact wouldn't be important either way. QS wouldn't win any provincial ridings either, but it might tip the election to a Liberal candidate in some selected Montréal ridings. (Do you follow me?)
Anyway, third parties dealt with, we are now left with the PQ/Liberal combo provincially, and the Bloc/Liberal/Conservative combo federally. As you can see, the federal scene is a little more congested, but that is really a false picture: the Conservatives won their seats in Québec City and the Beauce, and the Liberals are still the main federal contender in Montréal. If the Conservatives start splitting votes in Montréal, all this might come to naught, paving the way for the Bloc anyway. That might not be horrible bad for Harper though: he needs the Bloc to keep taking seats away from the Liberals in Québec if he wants to maintain a majority, or at least be the dominant minority ruler. Liberal militants might decide to put their weight behind the provincial Liberals, since a PQ victory can be more frightening than a Conservative victory (even for the soft-lefty ones).
Another factor to take into account is the political illiteracy of a part of the voting public. You've all met people who vote but can't make the difference between the provincial and federal parties. This kind of confusion would be a kind of Russian roulette in the Québec scene.
That's a lot of conjecture, I will concede. It would need to be backed up with a strong Harper budget, good for Québec with some Green words in there, but defeated in Parliament. But if Harper and Charest thought their could both win at this game, why not do it?
compasspoints, you're my ear on the ground, whaddya think? ;]