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Le PQ, l'ADQ et le PLQ à égalité statistique

Last week, one week ahead of most commentators, I started talking about a minority government in Québec. Now that they have talked about that, these new poll numbers lead me to think about a possible ADQ minority. I don't think the ADQ can muster a majority (the PLQ is strong in Montréal, and the PQ is gaining some ground on the Liberals in ridings were the Liberals wouldn't win anyway) but after seeing Brian Mulroney on The Hour yesterday, I'm thinking, you know, everything is possible.

An ADQ victory would be a huge boost for Harper's future fortunes in Québec. Keep your eyes peeled.

ETA: Michel Auger, in his cyberpresse blog, recounts the 1990 Bob Rae scenario (en français) to imply that the ADQ (he doesn't name them) is in line to win the election.

[livejournal.com profile] compasspoints, what are the options in your riding? :]

Date: 2007-03-17 03:37 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] culpster.livejournal.com
1) What did Mulroney say/do on The Hour?!

2) Part two of the 'Bob Rae scenario' was a government full of incompetent MPPs (all else aside - I speak from experience in Erie-Lincoln) and a rapid and monumental collapse of credibility. Is this predicted to follow as well?

Date: 2007-03-17 03:55 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] frandroid.livejournal.com
1) It was a softball interview. Mulroney was saying that he hadn't been a minister before becoming PM so he didn't have much experience and had to learn rapidly. blah blah blah. CBC is doing their Next Best Prime Minister contest so it was a promotional interview for them. Thus pablum.

2) It'll be worse in Québec. Dumont already fired two candidates for really inappropriate comments (he can't fire any more now, the candidacy period is over) and it's obvious that most of his candidates have no political experience. Something like 64 of his candidates have the provincial official agent as their official agent, i.e. they might possibly be running a campaign (although there's doubt there), but they couldn't convince a second person to commit themselves enough to their campaign to become their agent. I mean, I had managed to convince my mother to become my agent when I ran, and she handled the job properly, so it's not like it's wizardry or anything. I'm not trashing my mom (!); but she had no experience in doing that kind of thing before so it was kind of a leap. It's not complicated if you have a small campaign though.

Something quite stunning comes from one of his two fired candidates. He wants to be re-imbursed for the $14,000 in signs he bought for the campaign (quite impressive personal investment, I must admit, although with the ADQ's prospects rising, the rewards could be worth it). He also complains that he had to buy a suit and get a weekly haircut during the campaign, as the central campaign had demanded he do. Hello??

Chantal Hébert was on Tout Le Monde en Parle when Dumont was on last week. Dumont made the mistake to stay on the show after his own interview, and when it came for Hébert to be interviewed and asked for her opinions on the current election, she savaged Dumont, calling his campaign a one-man show and calling up his "best candidate catch" as a business lobbyist. The co-host later jokingly nicknamed her the "She-Wolf of the SS" for the strength of her criticism. It was a bloodbath, but in spite of that, it seems that Dumont moves forward unabated.

One of the main consequences of this ADQ rise is that Québec Solidaire (and MAYBE the Greens?) will lose votes to the PQ on ballot day as progressives will decide try to stop the ADQ as much as possible. Not a big loss; as a social-democratic separatist party, QS is more effective at splitting the PQ vote than offering a real alternative.

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