![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
We have some seriously good polling data on the NDP leadership campaign, at last!
NDP leadership: Thomas Mulcair ahead on first ballot, internal poll suggests
What the article doesn't say is that since no one has a clear lead, votes from behind will make or break this campaign.
Looking at these numbers, Niki Ashton polls 20% over the first two ballots. Look forward to some gratuitous ass-kissing from the other leading candidates during the next debate. Were she to endorse someone after dropping out, she could have a serious impact. Of course, she can't deliver all of her votes, but even 5% out of that 20% could put one candidate enough on top of the other. There's another 13% of voters on the first two ballots between Martin Singh and Romeo... That's 33% of the voters. If this poll is representative, Brian Topp's secondary support will make a winner, but it won't be him. So it's Grassroots vs. Party establishment. Fight!
I remember that the Layton campaign aggressively pursued a strategy of getting people to vote pre-convention, since it probably saw that it was comfortably leading the polls and thought it would make sense of locking in its vote in case something case to wreck its advance. I wonder if any campaign will have the resources and/or take the risk to do that, at the expense of not being able to influence the subsequent ballot between voting rounds? Mulcair's maybe...
Now I really wonder what, if anything, the campaigns might do to improve their ranks among that lower tier of candidates. We've seen the Topp campaign's "Saganash doesn't really speak French debacle" already...
Does anyone else think like me, that if Dewar hasn't released even partial results of the structure of second-round balloting (i.e. from the bottom tier), that means they're not leading that pack and therefore decided to publish just enough data to make their candidate look good?
(I posted these comments on a protected entry on Facebook, so I've copied them here... Thanks to Chanchal Bhattacharya for bringing my attention to the article)
NDP leadership: Thomas Mulcair ahead on first ballot, internal poll suggests
What the article doesn't say is that since no one has a clear lead, votes from behind will make or break this campaign.
Looking at these numbers, Niki Ashton polls 20% over the first two ballots. Look forward to some gratuitous ass-kissing from the other leading candidates during the next debate. Were she to endorse someone after dropping out, she could have a serious impact. Of course, she can't deliver all of her votes, but even 5% out of that 20% could put one candidate enough on top of the other. There's another 13% of voters on the first two ballots between Martin Singh and Romeo... That's 33% of the voters. If this poll is representative, Brian Topp's secondary support will make a winner, but it won't be him. So it's Grassroots vs. Party establishment. Fight!
I remember that the Layton campaign aggressively pursued a strategy of getting people to vote pre-convention, since it probably saw that it was comfortably leading the polls and thought it would make sense of locking in its vote in case something case to wreck its advance. I wonder if any campaign will have the resources and/or take the risk to do that, at the expense of not being able to influence the subsequent ballot between voting rounds? Mulcair's maybe...
Now I really wonder what, if anything, the campaigns might do to improve their ranks among that lower tier of candidates. We've seen the Topp campaign's "Saganash doesn't really speak French debacle" already...
Does anyone else think like me, that if Dewar hasn't released even partial results of the structure of second-round balloting (i.e. from the bottom tier), that means they're not leading that pack and therefore decided to publish just enough data to make their candidate look good?
(I posted these comments on a protected entry on Facebook, so I've copied them here... Thanks to Chanchal Bhattacharya for bringing my attention to the article)
