(no subject)

I dislike Richard Gwyn's writing with a passion; empty, shallow, filled with self-importance and talking about Nation this and Nation that, I have stopped reading him years ago even as I was devouring the rest of the Star. The Star leaves me hungry now, so I've switched to the Globe, which has its own issues, but this political crisis is making me read everything I can put my hands on. The Star has proven itself to be shamelessly partisan, supporting every Liberal move without a hint of doubt. La Presse, by contrast, has been quite critical of everyone involved, in spite of also being a Liberal newspaper, although it's more committed to federalism, where it's an actual issue in Québec, than to the Liberals themselves.

One thing that I hadn't read seen so far is some sort of account of what happened behind closed doors at Rideau Hall. As I was looking for more information, I saw this enticing headline, Governor General boxed in by Harper, which I followed, and then I saw Richard Gwyn's name staring me in the face. Soldiering on, I read it anyway.

Jean seemed, as the saying goes, to be "condemned to make history," and in each instance bad history – in the sense of creating damaging precedents for the future.

Cornered and boxed in, she created breathing space for herself by two very smart moves.

First, she took note of the fact that Harper had been rude enough and presumptuous enough to schedule another meeting, in Woodstock, Ont., for later the same day.

He was assuming, or was acting as if he assumed, that his meeting with Jean would be brief. Instead, by some mix of polite conversation and sharp questions – the nature of which we'll only learn about years later when the memoirs get written – Jean kept Harper at Rideau Hall for more than two hours.
[...]
No way exists – again, not until much later – to know whether Harper originally asked for a much longer prorogation than the one of the seven weeks to the end of January that he's actually been granted. All the preliminary indications were that he wanted more time without the bother of having to spend time in Parliament.

By fixing an earlier deadline for prorogation (or, more likely, by convincing Harper to ask for it), Jean preserved for her office the right for future Governors General not to have to be a patsy but to make the same kind of judgments about how the law and the national interest can best be accomplished.
[...]
In the nearer term, Harper has so soured Parliament's mood – utterly unnecessarily – that the three angry musketeers are very likely to vote non-confidence in his Jan. 27 budget.

If defeated then, Harper will trot round to Rideau Hall again to ask Jean for a dissolution and an election.

My guess is that on that occasion she'll say no, while smiling very sweetly to the cameras.

Now, a lot of this is based on conjecture, since obviously neither side will reveal what happened behind closed doors, but I like the narrative here... Giving Harper a chance to hang himself, giving the Liberals the chance to give themselves a more credible leader, the chance for the Liberal/NDP Coalition to form a more coherent plan and strategy if they want to, so that when the chips come down, there is less improvisation as was demonstrated by Dion's bungled videotaped statement, and more preparation for leading the country in a time of economic crisis.