Democracy is coming to Syria
Dec. 10th, 2024 05:44 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
frandroidI had posted my takes on FB and BlueSky, but in case you didn't see any of that...
Don't get me wrong, I am overjoyed at the overthrow of Assad, but anyone claiming that HTS did this on behalf of the US and/or Israel (!) is an absolute idiot. (In case you wonder, the people claiming such things are campists, i.e. people who think that the only lens for looking at political action is whether the U.S. supports it, and oppose that.) HTS are actually close to Turkey, because they're Islamists, not in spite of it. The Syrian National Army, the SNA, is the umbrella-group even more closely linked to Syria, and they also took territory in the last week, particularly Manbij, which had been held by the SDF. Isis also emerged from their underground status and captured a city or two in the south "east", as much as Syria has that.
Israel has been relentlessly bombing all military infrastructure in Syria since Assad left, over 300 air strikes now since Assad left. The Syrian army had good Russian-made anti-aircraft defenses, but with the fall of Assad, people stopped manning them and the IDF has been going to town, destroying these. Even the SDF hasn't been able to put their hands on much of the abandoned hardware in Qamislo before the IDF dropped their bombs. This is going to leave this new Syria even more vulnerable to Turkish domination in the north and possibly lose more territory to the IDF in the South as the latter grows Eretz Israel. Syria is today an even more failed state than it was last week, but a differently-shaped one.
Turkey is also going to use this opportunity to try to attack Kurds in Syria in the near future. If they can figure out a way to mediate a split of the country between HTS and the SNA, then they will push towards Rojava.
The SDF has been facing some popular resistance in their areas with larger Arab populations. The DAANES' (the official acronym of Rojava) feminist agenda (I'm not kidding. I can expand if you want) has not been popular with the rural Arab population and they don't like sharing the land with Kurds, so there are protests in the south in particular. Turkey has been bombing some Kurdish positions to help SNA takovers already. One Arab brigade has defected from the SDF to the SNA already.
CW: gruesome executions by HTS
On Telegram, I've just watched a man being hung by a crane, another one dragged through the streets by a car, and a couple young men have entire AK-47 clips unloaded unto them as they were laying on the ground, from Arab-controlled areas. Allahu Akbar indeed. There was another clip of men being killed in their hospital beds that I didn't watch.
So it looks like this HTS/SNA takeover is bringing democracy to Syria, one bullet a time. A bit slower than the neighbour's 2000-pound ballots, but to each their own. Syrians are far from being out of the woods yet. :(
Don't get me wrong, I am overjoyed at the overthrow of Assad, but anyone claiming that HTS did this on behalf of the US and/or Israel (!) is an absolute idiot. (In case you wonder, the people claiming such things are campists, i.e. people who think that the only lens for looking at political action is whether the U.S. supports it, and oppose that.) HTS are actually close to Turkey, because they're Islamists, not in spite of it. The Syrian National Army, the SNA, is the umbrella-group even more closely linked to Syria, and they also took territory in the last week, particularly Manbij, which had been held by the SDF. Isis also emerged from their underground status and captured a city or two in the south "east", as much as Syria has that.
Israel has been relentlessly bombing all military infrastructure in Syria since Assad left, over 300 air strikes now since Assad left. The Syrian army had good Russian-made anti-aircraft defenses, but with the fall of Assad, people stopped manning them and the IDF has been going to town, destroying these. Even the SDF hasn't been able to put their hands on much of the abandoned hardware in Qamislo before the IDF dropped their bombs. This is going to leave this new Syria even more vulnerable to Turkish domination in the north and possibly lose more territory to the IDF in the South as the latter grows Eretz Israel. Syria is today an even more failed state than it was last week, but a differently-shaped one.
Turkey is also going to use this opportunity to try to attack Kurds in Syria in the near future. If they can figure out a way to mediate a split of the country between HTS and the SNA, then they will push towards Rojava.
The SDF has been facing some popular resistance in their areas with larger Arab populations. The DAANES' (the official acronym of Rojava) feminist agenda (I'm not kidding. I can expand if you want) has not been popular with the rural Arab population and they don't like sharing the land with Kurds, so there are protests in the south in particular. Turkey has been bombing some Kurdish positions to help SNA takovers already. One Arab brigade has defected from the SDF to the SNA already.
CW: gruesome executions by HTS
On Telegram, I've just watched a man being hung by a crane, another one dragged through the streets by a car, and a couple young men have entire AK-47 clips unloaded unto them as they were laying on the ground, from Arab-controlled areas. Allahu Akbar indeed. There was another clip of men being killed in their hospital beds that I didn't watch.
So it looks like this HTS/SNA takeover is bringing democracy to Syria, one bullet a time. A bit slower than the neighbour's 2000-pound ballots, but to each their own. Syrians are far from being out of the woods yet. :(
no subject
Date: 2024-12-10 11:31 pm (UTC)I guess we do what we can to help the Kurds?
no subject
Date: 2024-12-11 08:50 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2024-12-11 12:33 am (UTC)I legitimately thought Assad would die in power, though, so that's something.
no subject
Date: 2024-12-11 08:49 pm (UTC)The wind blows indeed, I don't think it's glib, it's just grim, which is a proper assessment of what the future looks like. Particularly for anyone who is not a straight Arab Sunni man.