Well, my qualifications in this case aren't as a political scientist, but as a Québecois. I mean I pray every day that Québec elections will move away from the nation issue and on to real, substantive issues, but we're still far from that yet. Ignatieff and Duceppe nearly restarted that fire again but surprisingly Harper saw what was happening and decided to extinguish it, and managed to bring the whole house over. In embracing the nation issue, Harper might have created the space for Dion to focus on the environment, which Québécois care a lot about and means that we will have an election this spring.
But Dion is really not well liked in Québec. Québec Liberal delegates were completely appalled at the choice last night. It's possible to win a federal election if the Bloc takes Québec away from you, but it's much harder if the Conservatives make gains there.
I mean, there's time for Dion between now and March to ingratiate himself to a lot of Québécois, and Harper has made the job easy for him with his stances on Kyoto and Afghanistan, but it's awfully short.
And Ignatieff much less so outside thereof. As mulled over ad infinitum by the aforementioned pundits prior to the convention.
It was lose-lose for the Liberals in that respect... but there are a lot more swing voters in the ROC than in Quebec... especially since non-Liberal voters dans la belle province have two ways to split their vote; most outside only have one.
But like I said above, sample space of one. One longtime Reform-Alliance-PC supporter.
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
no subject
But Dion is really not well liked in Québec. Québec Liberal delegates were completely appalled at the choice last night. It's possible to win a federal election if the Bloc takes Québec away from you, but it's much harder if the Conservatives make gains there.
I mean, there's time for Dion between now and March to ingratiate himself to a lot of Québécois, and Harper has made the job easy for him with his stances on Kyoto and Afghanistan, but it's awfully short.
no subject
And Ignatieff much less so outside thereof. As mulled over ad infinitum by the aforementioned pundits prior to the convention.
It was lose-lose for the Liberals in that respect... but there are a lot more swing voters in the ROC than in Quebec... especially since non-Liberal voters dans la belle province have two ways to split their vote; most outside only have one.
But like I said above, sample space of one. One longtime Reform-Alliance-PC supporter.
no subject
(However when the nationalist Québec voters have to switch allegiances, they do so in a big way.)